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Energy development is changing from guarantee supply to quality and efficiency
The electric power planning and Design Institute issued the "China energy development report 2016".
Energy development is changing from guarantee supply to quality and efficiency
In March 30th, the power planning and Design Institute officially released the "China energy development report 2016" (hereinafter referred to as the "report"). The report is divided into seven chapters based on the strategic thought of "four revolutions and one cooperation" in the energy field. It covers the fields of optimizing energy structure, improving energy efficiency, reducing energy cost, and developing technological innovation. This paper analyzes and summarizes the state of energy development in China in 2016, and studies the development of energy. The trend is determined and the trend of development is judged.
A new phenomenon of "decoupling" between energy and economy
In recent years, the report shows that the growth rate of GDP in China has fallen steadily in recent years, and the growth rate of energy consumption has fallen considerably in the past year, and the new phenomenon of "decoupling" between energy and economy is presented. In 2015, the growth rate of GDP in China was 6.9%, and the annual growth rate of primary energy consumption was 1%. In 2016, the growth rate of GDP was 6.7%, and the annual growth rate of energy consumption was about 1.4%. Among them, the phenomenon of "decoupling" between energy consumption and economy is more obvious in the industrial field.
According to the report, the phenomenon of "decoupling" between energy and economy is universal. During the shift of economic growth in developed countries, the phenomenon of "decoupling" between energy and economy has appeared in different degrees, and the growth of energy consumption is lower than that of GDP. The process of economic development in developed countries shows that the growth rate of energy and electricity consumption has slowed down obviously when the per capita GDP reaches 7000~8000 dollars. This is a common phenomenon in the late stage of industrialization and after a significant change in the mode of economic development. At present, China's per capita GDP has reached nearly 8000 US dollars, and the relationship between energy and economy has come to an inflection point. The phenomenon of "decoupling" is in line with the law of development. The report points out that in 2016, the idea of energy development in China is changing from "speed scale" to "quality benefit", to prevent and resolve overcapacity and to promote energy clean and low carbon development as the main key of the industry. In the future, energy work should be transformed from ensuring supply to improving the overall quality and efficiency of the system.
Traffic and construction are the main driving forces for energy consumption
In 2016, China's energy structure was more reasonable, coal consumption declined for third consecutive years, the growth of oil consumption slowed, natural gas consumption grew warmer, the growth of electricity consumption increased, and the proportion of non fossil energy consumption increased continuously.
The report points out that the continuous optimization of energy consumption structure also benefits from the development of energy substitution in China, and transportation and building energy have become the main driving force for the growth of terminal energy consumption. The development of "electricity replacing oil" in China's transportation sector has become the highlight of the development of energy substitution in 2016. With the development of economy and the improvement of people's requirements for quality of life, energy substitution in the construction field has been developing steadily. However, in the industrial field, "gas replacing coal" has made slow progress.
In 2017, the report predicts that in the energy consumption structure of China, non fossil energy and natural gas are still the leading power to stimulate energy consumption growth, and the proportion of primary energy consumption continues to increase, coal consumption will continue to decline, the proportion of primary energy consumption continues to decrease, and the proportion of oil to energy consumption is the proportion of energy consumption. Keep steady. The development of primary energy consumption has shown a "two liters, a drop and a steady" development pattern. The electricity consumption of the whole society will increase moderately, and its growth rate will exceed 3%. Considering the influence of extreme weather and other factors, the growth of electricity consumption can fluctuate by 1 percentage points or so.
The total amount of energy production will pick up
In 2016, the total output of primary energy in China dropped by 4.2% over the same period last year, the first time since twenty-first Century. The output of raw coal has declined for third consecutive years. The crude oil output is the largest decline since the founding of the PRC, and the growth rate of natural gas production has dropped. New energy and renewable energy continue to maintain rapid development momentum.
The report predicts that in 2017, the total output of primary energy in China will reach 36.5 billion tons of standard coal, up from 2016. The output of raw coal is about 36.5 billion tons, the output of natural gas is about 150 billion cubic meters, the crude oil is about 2 billion tons, and the power consumption is about 1 trillion and 900 billion kwh.
With the implementation of the OPEC production reduction agreement, oil prices are expected to rise to a certain extent and play a positive role in stabilizing domestic oil production, but the overall impact is limited. In 2017, domestic oil production continued to decline. Domestic gas prices remained stable, but the volatility increased. It is estimated that shale gas and CBM output will continue to grow fairly fast in 2017, and the output of conventional gas will increase. Then withdrawing from coal production capacity of over 1.5 million tons, coal prices will gradually return to reason, and raw coal imports will be reduced. The output of raw coal is expected to pick up in 2017.
In 2017, China's new installed capacity will exceed 100 million kilowatts, and the supply capacity will be surplus. The capacity of the hydropower plant increases slightly, the wind power and the PV installation are increasing at a high speed, the proportion of the production capacity in the East and central areas is further improved; the speed of coal and electricity production continues to slow down, and the number of hours is further reduced. The nuclear power units with low hours are mainly distributed in Liaoning and Hainan.
Actively promoting the construction of the rule of law system of energy
The report points out that the new and old problems of energy development in China are intertwined, and the unbalance problems still exist, such as the lagging of the construction of energy law, the hovering of energy substitution, the soaring coal price, the urgent cooling of the coal and electricity development, the higher price of the gas distribution link and the continued intensification of the "three abandonment" phenomenon.
The "report", 2017, China should focus on promoting the northern winter heating clean, prevent and mitigate the risk of overcapacity, the development of clean energy alternative energy development, make up the short board, to promote the "The Belt and Road international cooperation, to provide a strong guarantee for the economic and social development of energy. The main measures include:
First, we should actively promote the construction of the rule of law system of energy. Speed up the process of energy legislation and improve the quality of energy legislation. Two, we should continue to deepen the reform of the electric power system and steadily push forward the reform of the oil and gas system. We should accelerate the pace of reform of the electricity side and form a market structure of "buy more and sell more". It will be a powerful measure to approve the transmission price of regional power grids and trans provincial power grids as soon as possible. We should promote the separation of transportation and sales of natural gas pipeline, adjust the stock of oil refining capacity and eliminate backward production capacity in the downstream area, and eventually form an open, competitive and orderly oil and gas market system. The three is to expand the "The Belt and Road" international energy cooperation. In the exchange of high-level visits for the lead, relying on the inter governmental cooperation platform, to "The Belt and Road" countries and regions as the key to encourage enterprises to actively participate in energy construction projects abroad, promote energy technology, equipment, services and standards of "going out".
At the same time, the "report" in the coal production capacity to precise measures and policies, the increase of oil and gas exploration investment, strengthen the natural gas infrastructure construction, improve renewable energy consumptive ability, accelerate energy substitution, actively promote the "Internet plus" smart energy demonstration projects and other aspects of the analysis and suggestions.